For his final calculation, Caballero turned to a 2012 paper published in the journal Mathematical SETI, in which researchers predicted that as many as 15,785 alien civilizations could theoretically share the galaxy with humans.Ĭaballero concluded that less than one of the Type 1 civilizations - 0.22, to be precise - would be hostile toward humans who make contact. That may sound like very slim odds - and it is, until you start multiplying it by the millions of potentially habitable planets in the Milky Way. If current rates of technological advancement hold, then interstellar travel wouldn't be possible for another 259 years, Caballero calculated using the Kardashev scale - a system that categorizes how advanced a civilization is based on its energy expenditure.Īssuming the frequency of human invasions continues to decline over that time at the same rate that invasions have declined over the last 50 years (an average of minus 1.15% per year, according to Caballero's paper), then the human race has a 0.0014% probability of invading another planet when we potentially become an interstellar, or Type 1, civilization 259 years from now. However, Caballero wrote, that probability refers to the current state of human civilization - and humans aren't currently capable of interstellar travel. came top with 38% of global military spending.)įrom there, Caballero added each country's individual probability of instigating an invasion, then divided the sum by the total number of countries on Earth, ending up with what he describes as "the current human probability of invasion of an extraterrestrial civilization."Īccording to this model, the current odds of humans invading another inhabited planet are 0.028%. sat at the top of the list, with 14 invasions tallied in that time.) Then, he weighted each country's probability of launching an invasion based on that country's percentage of the global military expenditure. He found that a total of 51 of the world's 195 nations had launched some sort of invasion during that period. To reach his estimation, Caballero first counted the number of countries that invaded other countries between 19. (Caballero is not an astrophysicist, but he has published a study on the infamous Wow! signal - a potential sign of extraterrestrial life - in the peer-reviewed International Journal of Astrobiology.)
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